Editor's note: This brief was summarised by The Property AI Newsroom from a report by PropertyWire. Read the original article for full details.
England Set to Miss Housebuilding Target by Over 660,000 Homes
England is projected to fall short of the government’s housebuilding target by more than 660,000 homes over the next five years, according to new forecasts from Savills. The property consultancy expects new home completions in England to average 167,500 annually through to 2029/30, significantly below the government’s target of 300,000 homes per year.
Savills’ analysis indicates that a total of 837,500 new homes will be built during the five-year period, resulting in a gap of 662,500 properties compared to the government’s ambitions. Recent data shows that new home completions fell by 4.1% to 190,602 in the year to March 2025, marking a 10.2% decline over two years since the end of the Help to Buy scheme.
The report highlights that completions are expected to decline further, with projections of just over 150,000 homes being built in both 2026/27 and 2027/28 before any potential recovery. Factors contributing to this shortfall include low levels of planning consents and starts, affordability pressures, higher interest rates, and rising development costs. These issues are creating a thinner pipeline of homes under construction and constraining both demand and viability in the market.
Savills suggests that a first-time buyer support scheme could help improve delivery rates. Under such a scenario, completions could rise to 198,000 homes per year by 2028/29, which would maintain housebuilding at the average rate seen over the last decade, though still below the government’s 300,000 target. The government has recently launched a consultation on a new first-time buyer ISA to replace the Lifetime ISA, aiming to provide additional support to first-time buyers and smaller developers.
The forecasted shortfall raises questions about housing supply constraints and their potential impact on property prices and affordability across England. With planning approvals remaining limited and construction costs elevated, the gap between housing targets and actual delivery is expected to persist in the near term.
Source: PropertyWire