Editor's note: This brief was summarised by The Property AI Newsroom from a report by Property Industry Eye. Read the original article for full details.

Housing market warning as sales fall for fourth consecutive month

Fresh data from TwentyCi shows sales agreed fell year-on-year for a fourth consecutive month in August, while the number of homes coming to market has reached its highest level in a decade. The combination is shifting the balance of the market towards buyers and points to a weaker pipeline of completed transactions in the final quarter.

Sales agreed continue to slide

TwentyCi's figures show sales agreed were around 8% lower year-on-year in May and June, then fell 5% in July and 6% in August. Across the first eight months of 2026, sales agreed were 5.4% below the same period last year. Meanwhile, new property listings increased 2.1% year-on-year and reached their highest level for 10 years, giving buyers more choice and increasing competition between sellers.

The figures contrast with separate Sprift data showing the national sales conversion rate rising to a six-month high. However, that improvement reflected new listings falling faster than sales agreed during August, not an increase in the number of deals being struck.

Completed transactions holding up, for now

Completed transaction data appears more resilient, with HMRC recording 5% more residential transactions year-on-year in July, although transaction numbers remain 2.5% lower across the year to date. TwentyCi noted that completed figures largely reflect deals negotiated earlier in the year, and its more timely sales agreed data points to a weaker pipeline feeding through during the final quarter.

The data firm forecasts 1.16 million residential transactions in 2026, a 3.9% fall from the 1.21 million recorded in 2025, though volumes would still stand 5.6% above 2024.

Colin Bradshaw, CEO of TwentyCi, said the housing market is presenting "something of a mixed picture". He noted that buyer demand has fallen by more than 5% year-on-year in every month since May, and that this sustained weakness will "inevitably feed through into completed transactions with a lag".

Buyers gain ground

With more homes for sale and fewer agreed sales, TwentyCi said its demand-to-supply ratio has deteriorated across every major property type, with flats recording the largest year-on-year decline at 13.2%.

Affordability could also come under further pressure from rising swap rates. Some mortgage lenders have already increased fixed rates despite no change in Bank Rate. Bradshaw warned that if fixed mortgage pricing continues to move upwards, it could put further pressure on affordability and make buyers even more cautious at a time when demand is already subdued.

For letting agents and inventory clerks, the picture of rising supply and softening sales activity may signal increased stock availability and a more buyer-led sales market heading into the final quarter of 2026.