Editor's note: This brief was summarised by The Property AI Newsroom from a report by Guardian Property. Read the original article for full details.
Insurers Face Surge in Subsidence Claims After Record-Hot Summers
UK insurers are reporting a marked rise in subsidence claims after two record-hot summers. Hastings recorded its highest-ever subsidence claims in August, up 140% on the same month last year, and its 2026 claims are running 30% higher year on year. The Association of British Insurers says the average UK subsidence claim hit a record £20,000 between April and June, with insurers paying out £72m for domestic subsidence claims in that period, compared with £60m a year earlier.
What the Data Shows
The British Geological Survey has warned that millions of UK homes are at risk of subsidence because of the worsening climate crisis. Under its worst-case scenario, 11% of UK homes — more than 4.2 million houses — could be at risk of subsidence by 2070.
As hotter, drier summers and warmer, wetter winters become more frequent, the ground under houses can shrink and drag down a property's foundations. Older properties with shallow foundations are more at risk, as are those built on clay-rich soils. The most vulnerable areas include London, Essex, Kent and a tranche of land from Oxford up to the Wash on England's east coast.
Axa has described 2026 as a "surge year" for subsidence, while Aviva is reviewing its reserves and pricing models. Timothy Farewell, a geospatial environmental data scientist whose company MapleSky advises 20 insurers and water companies on ground movement, said widespread drying of soils across the UK in 2018, 2022, 2025 and 2026 has led to an uptick in the number of cracking houses, bursting water mains and failing roads.
Spotting the Signs
Signs of subsidence include widening and lengthening diagonal cracks, typically around window and door frames, as well as sloping floors and sticking doors and windows. Inventory clerks and letting agents are well placed to flag these details during inspections and check-in reports.
Homeowners' experiences illustrate how lengthy the process can be. Henry Biggs, 49, from Stroud in Gloucestershire, and his partner noticed cracks in their 1970-built home in June 2025, a few months after buying it. Their insurer, Admiral, accepted their subsidence claim in the spring, but monitoring devices were only fitted about a year after the claim was submitted, and they do not know when repairs will begin. The couple have hired their own loss assessor, as subsidence claims tend to be complex and often last several years.
For agents managing older stock in high-risk areas, the report underlines the importance of monitoring cracks and documenting any changes, particularly after prolonged dry weather.
Source: Guardian Property