Editor's note: This brief was summarised by The Property AI Newsroom from a report by Guardian Property. Read the original article for full details.

Millions of Homes in London, Essex and Kent Face Subsidence Risk

Millions of homes in London, Essex and Kent are at risk of sinking due to climate-related subsidence, according to analysis by the British Geological Survey (BGS). The study identifies areas most vulnerable to hotter, drier weather, which can cause the ground beneath properties to shrink and drag down foundations.

The BGS analysis highlights that highly populated parts of London, including Camden, Islington and Barnet, are particularly susceptible. Other affected areas include Kent and a stretch of land from Oxford to the Wash on England’s east coast. Scientists state that mitigation measures will be needed as these risks increase.

Subsidence can significantly reduce a property’s value, and lenders may refuse to offer mortgages until the issue is resolved. Common signs of subsidence include diagonal cracks around window and door frames, as well as sloping floors. Addressing subsidence may require engineering work to stabilise land or underpin properties, and in some cases, replacing utility pipes or removing trees and vegetation.

In 2025, the UK experienced its warmest spring on record and the driest in over 50 years. During the first six months of that year, there were £153 million in subsidence-related insurance claims. The BGS dataset forecasts that by 2070, about 500,000 properties could be affected under a low emissions scenario, while more than 1.8 million properties could be impacted under a medium emissions scenario. In London, the number of properties likely to be affected could exceed 26% by 2070 under the medium scenario.

For letting agents and inventory clerks, these findings underline the importance of monitoring properties for signs of subsidence, especially in high-risk areas. Ongoing climate changes are expected to increase the frequency of hotter, drier summers and warmer, wetter winters, further raising the risk of shrink-swell subsidence in the coming decades.