Editor's note: This brief was summarised by The Property AI Newsroom from a report by The Negotiator. Read the original article for full details.
Tenure and Timing Shape City Property Prices, Analysis Shows
Property commentator Kate Faulkner OBE has published an analysis arguing that average national and regional property prices can distort what is really happening at city level, with tenure and timing both playing a role in local price performance.
Her city tracker, which monitors more than 30 cities with data going back as far as 2000, shows that more than half of the cities monitored have still not recovered to their 2022 price levels, while others continue to outperform.
No permanently 'best' or 'worst' city
The analysis consistently shows there is no such thing as a permanently 'best' or 'worst' performing city. A market that looks strong over one period can be among the weakest over another, so performance depends heavily on where and when a seller bought and what they plan to buy next.
How tenure affects the market
The report highlights Nationwide's analysis of the English Housing Survey, which shows people stay in their homes for an average of around 14 years, rising to nearly 24 years for those who own outright. Length of stay differs by tenure, with substantial differences between those who own with a mortgage, own outright or rent.
Faulkner suggests this could influence city price performance: depending on the proportion of households in each tenure and the level of ownership, this could affect affordability. In London, for example, prices are partly being held back by property values hitting an 'affordability buffer', but potentially also because more homes are purchased with a mortgage and fewer are owned outright.
What this means for agents
For letting agents and inventory clerks, the findings show how differently the market can look depending on tenure and timing. Someone who has owned a property for 20 or 30 years may have experienced a completely different market from someone who bought in the same city in 2022 — a useful framing when advising landlords and tenants on local market conditions.
Source: The Negotiator